AGP Executive Report

Diesel Pressure on Farms: Wisconsin dairy producer George Polzin says soaring diesel costs are crushing margins as milk prices lag, with input costs adding tens of thousands of dollars a year. Beef Tariffs, Herd Reality: A Michigan cattle rancher says eased U.S. beef tariffs may only be temporary, arguing real relief needs rebuilding the cattle herd amid high input costs. Phosphate Turns Geopolitical: A new focus on phosphate highlights how fertilizer supply shocks and Middle East disruptions can ripple into global food production. Cargill Earnings Slide: Cargill’s profit fell sharply as higher cattle costs hit beef while cocoa losses weighed on results, even as soy benefited. El Niño Climate Stress: Venezuelan officials warn El Niño and climate change are shifting planting and animal breeding cycles, with broader electricity strain across the region. Brazil Deforestation Politics: Far-right gains in Brazil’s election are tied to deforestation hotspots, raising alarms from Indigenous and environmental groups about future protections. Food Safety Crackdown: The FDA rolled out a 10-point plan to prevent Cyclospora outbreaks after nearly 20,000 U.S. cases linked to contaminated produce, including Mexico-linked lettuce. Caribbean Food-Agriculture Links: Barbados agriculture officials visited Venezuela to deepen cooperation on food and agriculture security, logistics, and education.

El Niño and food prices: A “Godzilla/Super El Niño” is intensifying drought and heat risks across regions, with knock-on effects for crops and global grocery costs, while the FAO Food Price Index climbed to near a four-year high on sugar and wheat strength. Argentina food trade push: Argentina is seeking a bigger role in India’s food supply chain, leveraging its edible-oil leadership and warning that fertilizer and grain disruptions could trigger a “major food crisis.” Brazil agribulk logistics deal: AD Ports Group completed its $835m acquisition of Brazil’s CLI, adding terminals at Santos and Itaqui to boost agri-bulk exports and create new trade routes. Wheat improvement drive: UK crop group Niab will lead an international program to speed winter wheat pre-breeding and trait validation. Food safety watch: The U.S. FDA linked a major Cyclospora outbreak to Mexico’s Taylor Farms lettuce operation, keeping pressure on traceability and farm-to-shelf controls. Rural politics and labor pressures: An AP-KFF poll finds rural voters split on Trump’s immigration crackdown—some see benefits, others say it harms local economies that rely on immigrant labor.

Climate & Food Security: Super El Niño is intensifying across Latin America, with reports warning of major heat and health impacts and mounting pressure on key supply chains. Extreme Weather on Farms: Heavy rains are threatening Costa Rica’s cacao harvest, while drought and heat stress elsewhere are already draining farm cash and cutting yields. Agriculture Resilience & Policy: France’s farm climate adaptation funding is under strain as losses mount, highlighting how quickly resilience plans can fall behind. Water & Rural Livelihoods: Mexicali farmers are pushing for financial relief amid major Colorado River water cuts. Caribbean Ag Education: Jamaica 4-H Clubs will build modern school gardens at four infant schools to spark early interest in agriculture. Digital Farming Push: A new market outlook points to rapid growth in IoT precision agriculture sensors, reflecting rising adoption of smarter farm management. Trade & Market Access: Western Cape exports to the U.S. fell 16.2% in 2025 as tariffs and uncertainty around preferential access weigh on agricultural exporters.

Food Safety & Trade: Mexico’s Health Ministry says the FDA cyclospora probe into a lettuce-linked outbreak tied to Taylor Farms has concluded, but it “did not conclusively identify” the contamination source—leaving supply-chain questions open. Livestock & Antimicrobials: A new Argentinian study found veterinary drug residues across 27 beef feedlots, with monensin detected in all sites and other antimicrobials showing up even without treatment records, raising antimicrobial-resistance concerns. Water & Crops: Mexicali Valley farmers plan to seek compensation as Colorado River cuts force mandatory fallowing, with local leaders saying Mexico’s water officials signal no relief will be provided. Global Prices: FAO reports global food prices rose in September toward a four-year high, driven by grain and sugar increases amid Black Sea/Strait of Hormuz disruptions and climate shocks. Agri-Exports: Guyana shipped its first UMAMI-manufactured container to Qatar, signaling more agro-processing exports as Agriculture Month 2026 ramps up.

Food Safety: Mexico’s Health Ministry said the FDA cyclospora probe tied to Taylor Farms shredded iceberg lettuce did not conclusively prove the contamination source, even as FDA reported a strong link and positive environmental samples; the outbreak sickened 12,883 people across 21 states. Agricultural Outlook: A Purdue-CME vs. Argentina Austral Ag farmer survey found U.S. growers more pessimistic about the next five years (57% expect bad times) while Argentina farmers were far more upbeat (53% expect good times), reflecting policy and market differences. Coffee Support (Venezuela): Venezuela delivered 290,000 coffee seedlings to Anzoátegui growers, paired with field technical assistance on agroecological practices and pest control. Global Food Prices: FAO reported September’s food price index near a four-year high, driven by grains and sugar amid transport and climate disruptions. Regional Ag Responsibility (Guyana): Guyana framed Agriculture Month as a CARICOM food-security duty, pitching expanded production and inter-island trade links. Energy Costs for Farms: Diesel prices remain a pressure point for rural economies and farm operations as fuel policy debates continue.

Food Safety: The FDA has closed its Cyclospora probe, saying the parasite was strongly linked to recalled Taylor Farms de Mexico shredded iceberg lettuce, with positive samples found at a Mexico processing facility and a lettuce grower site, plus a 10-point prevention plan for the 2027 season. Water & Crops: In Mexico’s Mexicali Valley, farmers are bracing for mandatory land fallowing after Colorado River cuts, arguing they should receive compensation as officials signal no government relief. Ag Exports & Ports: AD Ports Group completed its $835m acquisition of Brazil’s CLI, gaining agri-bulk terminals at Santos and Itaqui that handle sugar, corn and soybeans—key routes for Latin America’s farm exports. Climate Risk: A Brazilian climatologist warns El Niño-linked swings could worsen food and weather risks in southeastern Brazil as spring approaches. Trade Pressure: At the G20, the US faced pushback on excess industrial capacity and forced-labor trade rules, while ministers agreed food shouldn’t be used as a coercion tool.

Food Safety: The U.S. FDA closed its Cyclospora investigation into the Taylor Farms Mexico iceberg lettuce outbreak, saying it found the parasite in wastewater and a drainage ditch, with “strong evidence” linking the contamination to the recalled product. EU–Brazil Trade: After a September suspension, the EU signaled it could resume chicken and honey imports from Brazil once bureaucratic steps finish, following a positive audit. Caribbean Food Security: Guyana presented COTED progress showing 1.4 million tonnes of agricultural output reported in early 2026 (42.3% of target), with intra-regional exports rising. Regional Climate Risk: CAF will seed a US$1B response fund for a potential “Super El Niño,” warning agriculture, livestock and fisheries could take major hits. Caribbean Agriculture Policy: Jamaica’s agriculture minister urged CARICOM to specialize by crop and push private investment to cut the regional food import bill by 25% by 2030. Markets: Soybeans and corn fell on fund/technical selling, while forecasts point to warmer, drier harvest conditions.

World Food Prices: FAO says its Food Price Index averaged 136.0 in September, up 1.5% from August, driven by weather shocks and transport disruptions that are already feeding into cereal, sugar and oil markets. El Niño Pressure: UN-linked reporting warns the “super El Niño” risk is rising across Latin America, with knock-on effects for yields and food security. Diesel Export Threat: Coverage flags that a potential U.S. diesel export ban could tighten global fuel supplies, raising costs that ripple into farm operations and food logistics. Guyana’s Regional Role: Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali argues the country has a regional responsibility to boost Caribbean food security, pointing to agro-processing hubs and better farm-to-market links. Brazil Ethanol Push: Brazil’s ethanol sector is looking beyond cars, with new demand eyed from ethanol-powered farm machinery plus aviation and maritime uses. Trade & Inputs: A Russia-Brazil study notes fertilizer trade growth is lagging politics, with China gaining ground as fertilizer supplier to Brazil—an input risk for regional agriculture. EU Ag Exports: Argentina’s EU agricultural exports reportedly jumped 21% after the Mercosur deal, signaling continued market momentum for farm goods.

Farm Policy Uncertainty (U.S.): The extended 2018 Farm Bill expired Wednesday, leaving farm support, conservation, nutrition, research and rural programs in limbo as Congress works on a replacement; the House has advanced its version while the Senate vote is still pending, with no fix expected for at least a month. Climate & Livestock Heat (Caribbean): Barbados poultry producers are urging farmers to reduce heat stress on chickens as extreme temperatures threaten productivity. Food Security & Trade Rules (G20): G20 ministers agreed it’s “not acceptable” to weaponize food and agriculture in conflicts, amid rising pressure on Black Sea shipping and agricultural exports. El Niño Risk (Latin America): UNICEF warns 25.8 million children across Latin America face El Niño-related risks. Ag Policy & Environment (Peru): Peru’s SENASA suspended glyphosate and other pesticides in plant foods. Regional Agriculture Links (Caribbean Week of Agriculture): Jamaica’s minister called for stronger intra-Caribbean trade and better air/sea links, cold storage and border processes to move food between markets. Coffee & Farmers (International Coffee Day): International Coffee Day spotlights Latin American smallholders and the push for fair pay.

Argentina Investment Push: President Javier Milei told European investors in Paris that Argentina offers “abundant energy” and a “competitive” agricultural sector, pitching mining and oil alongside legal certainty for investors during Argentina Week. Colombia Illicit Crops Policy: Colombia unveiled a pilot aerial glyphosate plan for coca eradication in Putumayo (up to 1,000 hectares), but local leaders warn communities fear past spraying impacts. Colombia Water vs. Mining: In Antioquia’s Jericó, an 87-year-old farmer has become a symbol of resistance against the Quebradona copper project, with protests centered on protecting water sources. Caribbean Ag Supply Chains: Massy Group sold its Caterpillar business in Trinidad and Tobago to Guyana’s MACORP, aiming to keep regional support for mining and agriculture customers. Peru Blueberries Surge: US imports of Peruvian blueberries jumped 80% in early 2026 as exports rose 65% in value to $620M, despite El Niño heat. Trade Facilitation: St. Kitts and Nevis advanced plans for a National Electronic Single Window to streamline cross-border trade and reduce paperwork burdens.

Antibiotics & Beef Trade: A new study says Argentina’s feedlots show widespread antibiotic misuse, including off-label and unrecorded use, with EU officials facing renewed pressure as EU beef imports from Argentina rise. Climate Risk for Farmers: El Niño-linked weather is worsening drought impacts across Latin America, with reports highlighting how extreme conditions are straining farm production and water access. Seed Security: CIMMYT shipped thousands of maize and wheat accessions to the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, expanding a genetic backup meant to help breeders respond to drought, heat, and disease. Caribbean Ag Finance: Jamaica’s ALEX platform has generated nearly $2B in sales since 2018 by linking small farmers to tourism buyers, aiming to scale consistent supply. Soybean Trade Signals: Reuters reports China’s weak feed demand and crush margins could reduce soybean purchases, with US soybeans excluded from tariff relief and more demand shifting to Brazil and Argentina.

Banana Disease Watch: Taiwan’s TR4 Panama disease threat is resurfacing fears for Cavendish bananas, with growers warning that even a 40% loss can wipe out a plantation’s value. Climate & Food Supply Risk: Heatwaves are already rewriting food supply rules, with extreme weather cutting yields and forcing ingredient sourcing shifts across the chain. Trade Tensions Ripple: The U.S. ban on nearly $1B in Canadian imports escalates a wider North American trade fight that can hit farm-linked sectors. USMCA Talks: Agricultural groups are pushing for USMCA renewal as U.S., Mexico, and Canada meet in Calgary to address disagreements and cooperation. Caribbean Food Security: CARICOM ministers call for a new financing model to cut the region’s food import bill and strengthen regional integration. EU-Mercosur Legal Setback: The EU’s top court rejected Poland’s bid to suspend the Mercosur trade deal, keeping pressure on EU farm competitiveness. Brazil Finance Tech: CSD BR and Ripple move asset tokenization forward in Brazil using the XRP Ledger to mirror securities records for transparency and auditing.

Caribbean Food Security Push: Caribbean agriculture ministers meeting in Jamaica urged a new regional financing and trade model, warning that more production won’t help unless farmers can move goods across borders with better logistics, cold chains, and border procedures. Venezuela Regenerative Shift: President Delcy Rodríguez backed regenerative agriculture and launched the Winter 2026 maize harvest plan, while also reaffirming support for the Venezuelan Community Coffee Plan with subsidized diesel, fertilizer financing, and plans for specialized labs. Peru El Niño Watch: Peru’s ENFEN raised the Coastal El Niño alert to 88%, warning of extraordinary intensity through January 2027 that could disrupt rainfall, rivers, and marine resources. Colombia Agrifood Investment: PepsiCo announced a US$1 billion, five-year investment in Colombia to expand production, modernize plants, and strengthen distribution, citing support for farmers and shopkeepers. Brazil Coffee Signals: Coffee prices swung with Brazil’s weaker real and dry conditions in key growing areas, as markets weigh weather risk against global supply expectations. EU Trade Legal Update: The EU’s top court rejected Poland’s bid to pause the EU–Mercosur trade agreement, keeping the bloc’s South America deal on track. Caribbean Agriculture Week Spotlight: Caribbean Week of Agriculture opened in Jamaica with youth awards and renewed focus on attracting young farmers and entrepreneurs.

Banana Supply Under Strain: U.S. banana availability is getting riskier as growers across Ecuador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Colombia, Honduras, Peru, Mexico and others face extreme weather, rising costs, water stress, and worsening diseases—while El Niño could intensify disruption. Protected Agriculture Boost: A FAO technical mission in St. Kitts and Nevis wrapped up training to strengthen protected cultivation, focusing on nutrient management and integrated crop management to improve productivity and climate resilience. Caribbean Sargassum Response: St. Kitts and Nevis added two specialized DESMI workboats to improve monitoring and rapid response to sargassum influxes, with UNDP and Japan support. Cage-Free Egg Pressure: The Open Wing Alliance’s Fair and Fowl 2026 report says most major companies are meeting cage-free commitments, but a smaller group still lags. Tri-National Ag Talks: Canada, the U.S., and Mexico launched a Tri-National Agricultural Accord meeting in Calgary on animal disease, plant health, and rural development. Weather Watch: Hurricane Polo hit Baja California with life-threatening winds and flash flooding, with knock-on risks for regional agriculture and infrastructure.

Ag Tech in Brazil: FMC filed a regulatory dossier for rimisoxafen, a dual-mode herbicide, targeting resistant broadleaf weeds across Brazil’s corn and soybean belt. Precision Spraying in LatAm: Argentina’s DeepAgro partnered with Brazil’s Jacto to equip selective sprayers with AI leaf-reading tech that can cut crop-protection chemical use by up to 70%. Caribbean Food Security Push: Caribbean Week of Agriculture opened in Jamaica with a focus on food security, agri-business, climate-smart tech, and export expansion, as the region works to reduce its $13.7B food import bill. Trade Tensions and Farm Impacts: The US-China tariff framework trims duties on $30B of goods but leaves soybeans out, keeping pressure on soybean trade flows. Diesel Shock for Farmers: A potential US temporary diesel export ban is being weighed as prices near record levels; analysts warn it could ripple through Latin American transport and farming costs. Argentina Export Boom, Uneven Gains: A new analysis says Argentina’s export-led surge is lifting some provinces while more diversified regions lag behind. Belize Potato Prices: Vendors in Belize complain about high potato costs tied to limited import control, with prices far above nearby Mexico.

Pollinators Under Pressure: Iowa’s native bees and butterflies are losing prairie habitat as monocrops expand, raising alarms for pollination of both wild plants and some crops. El Niño Threat to Farms: The WMO says an unusually strong El Niño is building and could last into early 2027, with higher odds of drought and floods that can disrupt planting and yields. U.S.-China Farm Trade Twist: China plans tariff cuts on many U.S. farm goods, but soybeans are excluded, keeping a 10% extra tariff and adding uncertainty for soybean markets. Brazil Election and the Environment: Analysis says Lula-era Amazon protection likely avoided at least 20,000 km² of deforestation since 2022, with the Oct 4 vote seen as pivotal for future enforcement. Food Safety Turns Political: A major U.S. outbreak and meat recalls are fueling a “food fight” ahead of midterms, with voters increasingly worried about what’s safe to eat. Restoration for Food Security: FAO highlights forest and landscape restoration as a cost-effective way to strengthen agrifood systems, but warns scaling needs more investment and governance. Mexico Investment Push: Bankaool says Mexico’s supply-chain shifts and Plan México are opening opportunities, including in agriculture, and it’s pitching cross-border business links.